2014 United States Senate election in New Hampshire

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United States Senate election in New Hampshire, 2014

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  Jeanne Shaheen, official Senate portrait cropped.jpg Sbrownofficial.jpg
Nominee Jeanne Shaheen Scott Brown
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote 251,184 235,347
Percentage 51.5% 48.2%

New Hampshire Senate Election Results by County, 2014.svg
County Results

Shaheen:      50–60%      60–70%

Brown:      50–60%

U.S. Senator before election

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

Elected U.S. Senator

Jeanne Shaheen
Democratic

The 2014 United States Senate election in New Hampshire was held on November 4, 2014, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the state of New Hampshire, concurrently with the election of the Governor of New Hampshire, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Incumbent Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen ran for re-election to a second term in office.[1] Primary elections were held on September 9, 2014.[2] Shaheen was unopposed for the Democratic nomination and the Republicans nominated former U.S. Senator Scott Brown, who represented Massachusetts from 2010 to 2013.[3]

Brown was seeking to become only the third person in history and the first in 135 years to represent more than one state in the United States Senate. Waitman T. Willey represented Virginia from 1861 to 1863 and West Virginia from 1863 to 1871 and James Shields represented Illinois from 1849 to 1855, Minnesota from 1858 to 1859 and Missouri in 1879.[4] Since the 17th Amendment, which provides for the popular election of Senators as opposed to state legislatures, was ratified in 1913, Brown would have been the first person popularly elected to two different states in the Senate.

Shaheen defeated Brown by 51.5% to 48.2%, thus Brown became the first man to lose two Senate races to women, having previously lost to Elizabeth Warren in Massachusetts in 2012.[5]

Democratic primary[edit]

Shaheen was unopposed for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Jeanne Shaheen (Incumbent)

Individuals

Results[edit]

Democratic primary results[10]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (Incumbent) 74,504 100.00%

Republican primary[edit]

The Republican primary for this election was much more highly contested than the respective Democratic one, with Scott Brown beating out Jim Rubens and Bob Smith for the Republican nomination.

Candidates[edit]

Declared[edit]

Withdrew[edit]

Declined[edit]

Endorsements[edit]

Scott Brown

Individuals

Bob Smith

Individuals

  • Karen Testerman, conservative activist, candidate for Governor in 2010 and former candidate for U.S. Senate[17]
Jim Rubens

Individuals

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charles
Bass
Scott
Brown
Andy
Martin
Jim
Rubens
Bob
Smith
Karen
Testerman
Other Undecided
New England College October 7–9, 2013 424 ± 4.56% 21% 47% 5% 4% 23%
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 528 ± 4.3% 42% 11% 8% 11% 7% 22%
4% 12% 26% 10% 47%
Gravis Marketing January 29–30, 2014 498 ± 4.3% 51% 22% 27%
Suffolk/Boston Herald Feb 27 – March 5, 2014 426 ± 4.8% 33.33% 0.7% 3.05% 11.97% 3.29% 47.65%
Vox Populi Polling May 14–15, 2014 ? ± 5.2% 38% 9% 13% 8% 32%
Suffolk/Boston Herald June 14–18, 2014 419 ± 4.8% 40.33% 0.24% 3.58% 12.17% 2.88%[35] 40.81%
NBC/Marist July 7–13, 2014 1,342 ± 2.7% 61% 10% 16% 1% 12%

Results[edit]

Republican primary results[36]
Party Candidate Votes %
Republican Scott Brown 58,775 49.86%
Republican Jim Rubens 27,089 22.98%
Republican Bob Smith 26,593 22.56%
Republican Walter W. Kelly 1,376 1.17%
Republican Bob Heghmann 784 0.67%
Republican Andy Martin 734 0.62%
Republican Mark W. Farnham 733 0.62%
Republican Miroslaw "Miro" Dziedzic 508 0.43%
Republican Gerard Beloin 492 0.42%
Republican Robert D'Arcy 397 0.34%
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (write-in) 220 0.19%
Scatter 183 0.16%
Total votes 117,884 100.00%

General election[edit]

Debates[edit]

Fundraising[edit]

Candidate Raised Spent Cash on Hand
Jeanne Shaheen (D) $12,503,497 $11,568,326 $1,971,242
Scott Brown (R) $6,752,981 $6,331,278 $1,027,069

Independent expenditures[edit]

Super PAC Supporting Amount Media Goal
Senate Majority PAC Jeanne Shaheen $682,558[37] TV Oppose Scott Brown
League of Conservation Voters Victory Fund Jeanne Shaheen $364,320[37] TV Oppose Scott Brown
Ending Spending Inc. Scott Brown $61,448[38] Media Oppose Jeanne Shaheen
Ending Spending Action Fund Scott Brown $60,136[38] Media Support Scott Brown
New Hampshire PAC to Save America Jim Rubens $57,866[37] Direct Mail Support Jim Rubens
NextGen Climate Action Committee Jeanne Shaheen $37,421[38] Digital Advertising Oppose Scott Brown
Ocean Champions Jeanne Shaheen $25,000[38] Media Oppose Scott Brown
Tea Party Victory Fund Bob Smith $15,000[37] Voter Contact Calls Support Bob Smith

Predictions[edit]

Source Ranking As of
The Cook Political Report[39] Tossup November 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball[40] Lean D November 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report[41] Tilt D November 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics[42] Tossup November 3, 2014

Polling[edit]

Poll source Date(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Jeanne
Shaheen (D)
Scott
Brown (R)
Other Undecided
Public Policy Polling April 19–21, 2013 933 ± ? 52% 41% 7%
Rockefeller Center April 22–25, 2013 433 ± 4.7% 44.2% 29.5% 26.3%
New England College May 2–5, 2013 807 ± 3.27% 54% 35% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 13–16, 2013 1,038 ± 3% 48% 44% 7%
American Research Group December 13–16, 2013 549 ± 4.2% 48% 38% 14%
Public Policy Polling January 9–12, 2014 1,354 ± 2.7% 46% 43% 10%
Purple Strategies January 21–23, 2014 1,052 ± 3% 44% 44% 12%
Harper Polling January 22–23, 2014 513 ± 4.33% 40% 35% 25%
WMUR/UNH January 21–26, 2014 454 ± 4.1% 47% 37% 3% 14%
Public Policy Polling February 19–20, 2014 686 ± 3.7% 47% 39% 14%
Suffolk/Boston Herald February 27 – March 5, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 52% 39.13% 8.87%
Rasmussen Reports March 12–13, 2014 750 ± 4% 50% 41% 4% 5%
American Research Group March 13–16, 2014 533 ± 4.2% 50% 38% 12%
Public Policy Polling April 7–8, 2014 1,034 ± 3.1% 49% 41% 10%
WMUR/UNH April 1–9, 2014 387 ± 5% 45% 39% 2% 14%
Rockefeller Center April 21–25, 2014 412 ± 4.8% 39% 36% 25%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014 400 ± 4.9% 49% 43% 8%
Vox Populi Polling May 14–15, 2014 707 ± 3.6% 47% 35% 18%
American Research Group June 14–18, 2014 540 ± 4.2% 50% 38% 12%
Suffolk/Boston Herald June 14–18, 2014 800 ± 3.5% 49.38% 39.38% 2.5%[43] 8.75%
WMUR/UNH June 19 – July 1, 2014 509 ± 4.3% 52% 40% 1% 7%
NBC News/Marist July 7–13, 2014 1,342 ± 2.7% 50% 42% 1% 6%
Magellan Strategies July 7–13, 2014 1,618 ± 2.43% 46% 41.1% 12.9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 2014 1,251 ± 2.9% 50% 40% 4% 6%
WMUR/UNH August 7–17, 2014 609 ± 4% 46% 44% 1% 9%
Public Policy Polling August 27–28, 2014 766 ± ? 50% 44% 6%
Public Opinion Strategies August 27 – September 1, 2014 500 ± 4.38% 44% 41% 9%[43] 6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18 – September 2, 2014 1,159 ± 4% 47% 41% 4% 9%
Kiley & Company September 2–4, 2014 602 ± 4% 50% 42% 8%
Global Strategy Group September 10, 2014 1,027 ± 3.1% 48% 41% 11%
Kiley & Company September 9–11, 2014 600 ± 4% 51% 43% 6%
CNN/ORC September 8–11, 2014 735 LV ± 3.5% 48% 48% 4%
883 RV ± 3.5% 51% 44% 5%
Magellan Strategies September 10–11, 2014 2,214 ± 2% 44.3% 45.9% 9.8%
Rasmussen Reports September 10–11, 2014 1,027 ± 3.1% 48% 42% 5% 5%
New England College September 10–11, 2014 630 ± 3.98% 51% 40.2% 4.5% 4.2%
American Research Group September 12–15, 2014 544 ± 4.2% 50% 45% 5%
Vox Populi Polling September 15–16, 2014 550 ± 4.2% 43% 47% 11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2014 652 ± 3.8% 50% 44% 5%
New England College September 19–20, 2014 1,494 ± 2.54% 50.1% 42.8% 4% 3.2%
American Research Group September 27–29, 2014 600 ± 4% 53% 43% 4%
New England College September 26, 2014 1,331 ± 2.69% 47.1% 46.6% 3.3% 2.9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20 – October 1, 2014 1,260 ± 3% 48% 41% 1% 10%
New England College October 3, 2014 1,286 ± 2.73% 48.5% 45.9% 3.2% 2.3%
WMUR/UNH September 29 – October 5, 2014 532 ± 4.2% 47% 41% 1% 10%
High Point University October 4–8, 2014 824 ± 3.4% 48% 46% 6%
Kiley & Company October 7–9, 2014 600 ± 4% 50% 44% 6%
New England College October 9, 2014 1,081 ± 2.98% 46.9% 48% 2.8% 2.3%
UMass Amherst October 10–15, 2014 322 LV ± 6.6% 48% 45% 5% 2%
400 RV ± 6% 49% 41% 5% 5%
New England College October 16, 2014 921 ± 3.23% 47.3% 47.7% 2.7% 2.3%
Suffolk/Boston Herald October 16–19, 2014 500 ± ? 48.6% 45.6% 5.8%
UMass Lowell October 15–21, 2014 643 LV ± 4.5% 49% 46% 1% 4%
900 RV ± 3.8% 48% 41% 2% 10%
CNN/ORC October 18–21, 2014 645 LV ± 4% 49% 47% 3%
877 RV ± 3.5% 50% 44% 5%
Public Policy Polling October 20–21, 2014 764 ± ? 49% 45% 5%
American Research Group October 19–22, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 48% 3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 2014 1,042 ± 4% 46% 41% 1% 12%
New England College October 24, 2014 1,132 ± 2.91% 46.8% 48.3% 2.5% 2.4%
WMUR/UNH October 22–26, 2014 555 ± 4.2% 50% 42% 8%
Vox Populi Polling October 27–28, 2014 638 ± 3.9% 49% 45% 6%
American Research Group October 27–29, 2014 600 ± 4% 49% 49% 2%
Rasmussen Reports October 29–30, 2014 940 ± 3% 52% 45% 1% 2%
Public Policy Polling October 30–31, 2014 679 ± ? 49% 47% 4%
New England College October 31 – November 1, 2014 1,526 ± 2.51% 48.2% 48.7% 1.4% 1.7%
WMUR/UNH October 29 – November 2, 2014 757 ± 3.6% 47% 45% 3% 6%
Public Policy Polling November 1–3, 2014 1,690 ± 2.4% 50% 48% 3%

Results[edit]

The race was close throughout the night. However, with 57% of the vote in MSNBC was comfortable enough with Shaheen's lead to declare her the victor. Brown called Shaheen to concede at 11:32 P.M. EST. Shaheen won with nearly a three-point majority.

U.S. Senate election in New Hampshire, 2014[44]
Party Candidate Votes %
Democratic Jeanne Shaheen (Incumbent) 251,184 51.46%
Republican Scott Brown 235,347 48.21%
None Scatter 1,628 0.33%
Total votes 488,159 100.00%
Democratic hold

See also[edit]

References[edit]

  1. ^ "Jeanne Shaheen in for 2014 Senate race". Fosters.com. March 8, 2012. Retrieved March 26, 2013.
  2. ^ "FOR ALL CANDIDATES FILING DECLARATIONS OF CANDIDACY". New Hampshire Secretary of State. July 25, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2014.
  3. ^ "Scott Brown wins New Hampshire Senate primary". Politico.com. September 9, 2014. Retrieved September 10, 2014.
  4. ^ "Sorry, Scott: Choosing A New State After You Get The Boot Never Works". Talking Points Memo. March 14, 2014. Retrieved September 21, 2014.
  5. ^ Zavadski, Katie (November 5, 2014). "11 Big Firsts From the 2014 Midterm Elections". Retrieved November 7, 2014.
  6. ^ Blake, Aaron (November 9, 2012). "Senate Democrats face a very tough 2014 map". Washington Post. Retrieved November 11, 2012.
  7. ^ Miller, Joshua (November 2, 2014). "Hillary Clinton returns to N.H., hints at 2016 issues". The Boston Globe. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
  8. ^ "King on Collins: 'We've got a model senator here'". Kennebec Journal. May 16, 2014. Retrieved May 16, 2014.
  9. ^ Miller, Joshua (October 25, 2014). "Elizabeth Warren rallies support for Jeanne Shaheen in N.H." The Boston Globe. Retrieved September 25, 2016.
  10. ^ "2014 United States Senate - Democratic Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved September 28, 2014.
  11. ^ a b c d e f "OFFICE OF THE SECRETARY OF STATE - ELECTION DIVISION REPUBLICAN CUMULATIVE FILING AS OF 07/23/2014". New Hampshire Secretary of State. July 23, 2014. Retrieved July 25, 2014.
  12. ^ "Report: Scott Brown is officially running for US Senate in New Hampshire". Boston.com. April 2, 2014. Retrieved April 2, 2014.
  13. ^ Miller, Rich (August 21, 2013). "Perennial candidate decamps to New Hampshire". Capitol Fax. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
  14. ^ DiStaso, John (September 18, 2013). "Former NH state Sen. Jim Rubens announces candidacy for US Senate against Dem. Shaheen". The Republic. Retrieved September 19, 2013.
  15. ^ Joe Sweeney [@JoeSweeneyNH] (December 1, 2013). "Looks like Bob Smith will in fact be running for US Senate. #NHPolitics #NHSen" (Tweet) – via Twitter.
  16. ^ Leubsdorf, Ben (October 14, 2013). "N.H. Republican activist Karen Testerman to run for U.S. Senate in 2014". Concord Monitor. Retrieved December 7, 2013.
  17. ^ a b "Testerman drops out of US Senate race, backs Smith". Connecticut Post. June 13, 2014. Retrieved June 13, 2014.
  18. ^ a b c Pindell, James (September 10, 2013). "The list: which Republicans could run for major office next year". WMUR. Retrieved September 10, 2013.
  19. ^ Houghton, Kimberly (February 5, 2014). "Londonderry's Baldasaro won't seek Senate seat". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved February 28, 2014.
  20. ^ Schultheis, Emily (November 4, 2013). "Charlie Bass won't challenge Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire". POLITICO. Retrieved November 4, 2013.
  21. ^ Jaffe, Alexandra (February 10, 2013). "New Hampshire Republicans looking to rebuild in time for 2014 elections". The Hill. Retrieved March 29, 2013.
  22. ^ Pindell, James (September 3, 2013). "Bradley rules out running for statewide office next year". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
  23. ^ Robert Schmidt (December 12, 2013). "Former Senator Gregg Said to Step Down From Wall Street Lobby". Bloomberg. Retrieved December 12, 2013.
  24. ^ DiStaso, John (December 12, 2013). "John DiStaso's Granite Status: Gregg for the US Senate again? 'Been there, done that,' he says". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved December 12, 2013.
  25. ^ Toeplitz, Shira (November 29, 2012). "New Hampshire: Guinta Opens Door to Senate, Comeback Bids". Roll Call. Retrieved January 28, 2013.
  26. ^ Cahn, Emily (September 24, 2013). "Ex-Congressman Launches Rematch Bid With Bipartisan Tone". Roll Call. Retrieved September 24, 2013.
  27. ^ Leubsdorf, Ben (October 9, 2013). "Republican Dan Innis announces run for Congress in N.H.'s 1st District". Concord Monitor. Retrieved October 9, 2013.
  28. ^ Lessard, Ryan (April 15, 2013). "Ovide Lamontagne Takes Major Anti-Abortion Job In D.C." nhpr.org. Retrieved April 19, 2013.
  29. ^ Pindell, James (September 27, 2013). "GOP state Sen. Andy Sanborn will not run for governor". WMUR Political Scoop. Retrieved October 1, 2013.
  30. ^ Larson, Leslie (August 19, 2013). "Conservatives rally Rush Limbaugh radio show fill-in Mark Steyn to run for Senate…despite the fact he's not a U.S. citizen". New York Daily News. Retrieved August 19, 2013.
  31. ^ DiStaso, John (July 18, 2013). "John DiStaso's Granite Status: Chris Sununu won't run for Gov, US House or US Senate in '14; plans to seek reelection to Executive Council". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved July 19, 2013.
  32. ^ a b DiStato, John (April 12, 2013). "Exclusive: Former Sen. John E. Sununu won't run for office in 2014". New Hampshire Union Leader. Retrieved April 12, 2013.
  33. ^ "Sen. Stiles endorses Scott Brown". Seacoastonline. May 2, 2014. Retrieved May 3, 2014.
  34. ^ "First on CNN: Romney to endorse Scott Brown". CNN. June 24, 2014. Retrieved June 24, 2014.
  35. ^ Miro Dziedzic 0.72%, Bob Heghmann 0.72%, Walter Kelly 0.72%, Mark Farnham 0.48%, Robert D'Arcy 0.24%
  36. ^ "2014 United States Senate - Republican Primary". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved September 28, 2014.
  37. ^ a b c d "Realtime Federal Campaign Finance". Sunlight Foundation. July 11, 2014. Retrieved July 11, 2014.
  38. ^ a b c d "Realtime Federal Campaign Finance". Sunlight Foundation. July 11, 2014. Retrieved July 11, 2014.
  39. ^ "2014 Senate Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  40. ^ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  41. ^ "2014 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  42. ^ "2014 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2014". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 20, 2018.
  43. ^ a b c d Gardner Goldsmith (L)
  44. ^ "United States Senator - 2014 General Election". New Hampshire Secretary of State. Retrieved November 22, 2014.

External links[edit]